Nashville Braces for Extreme Heat and Possible Drought as Temperatures Surge and Rainfall Decreases

Nashville Area Faces Another Drought Period Amid High Heat, Abnormally Dry Conditions

Extreme heat has long been known as one of the leading weather-related killers in the United States, causing hundreds of fatalities each year. Once again, the Nashville area finds itself in the grips of a serious heat wave with several consecutive days of high temperatures forecast. Starting on Friday, locals can expect temperatures to be touching a sweltering 100 degrees, while the heat index would escalate to even more daunting heights.

Heat Index – A Measure of the Real Feel

Just to put this into context, the heat index is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored in with the actual air temperature. Given the current meteorological data, Friday’s highest temperature is expected to be close to 96 degrees but the heat index is likely to reach 101. The temperatures are expected to surge further over the weekend, with highs of 98 degrees and the heat index escalating to as high as 104.

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While extreme, the current heat wave is still expected to stay below the critical heat advisory criterion (105 heat index) until Tuesday. However, with the accompanying surge in humidity, conditions will remain near unbearable.

The Return of Drought Conditions

Apart from the sweltering heat, another significant concern is the return of drought conditions as a result of the relentless heat teamed with the lack of rainfall. Under such extreme conditions, areas of Nashville and surrounds could experience what is known as abnormally dry conditions (D0).

According to National Weather Service Meteorologist Ryan Husted, “The forecast for the next 7-14 days brings a little hope as it seems there will be a front that moves into the region, bringing us slightly cooler temperatures and increased chances for rain.” However, Husted also cautioned that the conditions do not seem to be a “drought buster”.

Drought Conditions – Predictions for Middle Tennessee

The abnormally dry conditions are expected to significantly affect areas along and south of Interstate 40. According to meteorological data, these regions have received only between 5 to 25% of normal precipitation in the past 30 days. Under such conditions, the southern half of Middle Tennessee is expected to experience a moderate drought, while certain areas like parts of Cumberland County and areas of south-central Middle Tennessee may undergo severe drought scenarios.

Looking into the next month, the average July temperature in Nashville is 81 degrees with the average high remaining around 91. With a 33 to 40% chance forecast for a continuation of above-average temperatures throughout July, most of the mid-state is expected to receive less than half an inch of rainfall over the next seven days. As a result, the drought is expected to persist, if not worsen, for most of Tennessee during the summer.